Before the summer is over there will be as many as four hundred non-travel related cases of Zika in Florida, according to an expert in biostatistics. In addition to the increased amount of Zika cases in Florida, the Zika virus will move out of Florida and into other states. According to researchers at the University of Florida, Texas, South Carolina and Oklahoma, are all states that will experience cases of non-travel related Zika.
Biostaticians, using data collected from Brazil, are able to accurately predict in which state Zika will enter, and how many cases of Zika will be reported in that state. In addition to the states mentioned above, Alabama is projected to have eleven cases of non-travel related Zika infection before Fall. Arkansas and Oklahoma were the two northernmost states that are predicted to experience an outbreak of Zika. However, it must be remembered that a year ago many of these very same biostatisticians were not even sure if the United States was going to experience any cases of Zika within its boundaries. Now, due to how aggressively it has hit the US, we may want to be weary of the projections coming from scientists.
Many researchers have relied on retrospective analysis to predict future outbreaks, but so far there has not been any researchers to use prospective cohorts. A researcher at Emerging Pathogens Institute is planning on following mothers over time in order to document the symptoms and the pregnancy outcomes of those mothers who are infected.
The researchers are working alongside the Colombia National Institute of Health, which has gathered a cohort of fifteen thousand women who knew that they were infected while pregnant and others who think that they had it. This is the biggest cohort in all of Latin America, and it will be invaluable in revealing how the date of contraction is correlated with the severity of the birth defects.
Do you think that the degree to which the USA could be harmed by the Zika virus can be predicted by analyzing data on Zika from Brazil?
Miami Beach Botanical Gardens was also recently ordered to uproot Bromeliads , which had been identified as a mosquito breeding grounds. City officials are targeting mosquito breeding grounds to curve the spread of Zika in Florida. Officials are recommending homeowners treat bromedliads with bacterial pesticides to flush out mosquito larvae. To read more on this matter visit http://www.wptv.com/news/state/bromeliads-arent-to-blame-for-zika-in-miami-beach-some-plant-growers-say